Seven years ago, a mere a short phrase to electrify a Labour conference demonstrating Labour was becoming disillusioned with its then leader. Although not exactly stirring rhetoric, the phrase were greeted with wild cheering as delegates rose in an impromptu ovation.
When the noise subsided, the then-Brexit spokesman, remained at the lectern, visibly startled. He was unaccustomed to his speeches having such an effect. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". But context is everything.
In that darkly divisive time in 2018, straying from the prepared script like this was inevitably viewed as issuing a challenge to the party leader, who was trying to prioritise leave supporters in working-class seats over the Europhile sentiments of his party. In just one speech, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman was transformed – albeit temporarily – into a risk-taker who would stand up for the party's base against a leader he would later replace.
The Shift in Position & Closed Issues
Since then, the landscape has shifted, especially for Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the EU question was resolved by the 2019 general election. And, at the last one, he repeatedly emphasised unbreakable pledge promises that forbade re-entry into the EU, the single market or a customs union.
Similar to Corbyn, the PM's approach has been to pursue Brexit-y voters in target constituencies, even if polling evidence indicates a significant number have died or changed their minds.
Pressure Building on Europe
However, it’s now Starmer is now to face the pressures of being a party leader. And, if Europe is no longer the central crisis of British politics, the cap which was firmly shut for five years is beginning to rattle once more.
The Prime Minister and Chancellor have ramped up the rhetoric regarding the damage caused by Brexit has inflicted on the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool to criticize the Reform UK leader, who now rarely mentions how leaving the EU was his primary goal and remains his sole political accomplishment.
And yet, the extent of the economic harm, reportedly has resulted in an economy that is significantly diminished than if it were still in the EU, dwarfs the minor adjustments thus far implemented by the government. The PM's much-touted relationship reset negotiated with the EU last summer offers economic benefits measured in low decimal points.
Cabinet Divergence & Bolder Ideas
The chancellor is one of those attempting to bypass long-standing interior ministry opposition to an expansive version of a growth-enabling program for young people by which young people can travel between the UK and the EU for work or study.
The deputy prime minister muses openly about the “self-evident” benefits of being in a customs union with the EU, while a dozen Labour MPs, such as the head of the Treasury select committee, last week supported an opposition proposal on customs union membership.
While Nick Thomas-Symonds, who oversees UK-EU relations, now present at every cabinet meeting, maintains the red lines remain unchanged, there are ways these could be bypassed. One idea involves announce the start of talks immediately for a more ambitious agreement, to be featured in the next manifesto, to be enacted only after Labour won a new electoral mandate.
The Prime Minister's Fundamental Doubts
Yet, Starmer has most recently damping it all down again cautioning that rejoining a European customs area would “unravel” the commercial agreements with America, which he regards as key accomplishments of his government.
Reportedly that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, stemming from several key concerns.
- Firstly, he believes a customs pact is now much harder as ministers are busily de-aligning from EU regulations across a range of sectors, including the environment.
- Second, the exorbitant price set for the UK for entry into the EU’s new defence fund and the subsequent collapse in talks has convinced UK negotiators that European nations have little interest in offering favorable terms to the UK than in demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
- Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, praised by Moscow, is viewed by key advisors in Downing Street as a reason for the UK to keep its distance from the EU.
A Bizarre Document and Strategic Calculations
This bizarre and terrifying American strategy paper claims Europe faces “civilizational erasure” because of Muslim migration. It contains only one reference to Britain, found on a suggestion that the US government may interfere in our politics to foster the growth of “patriotic” parties.
But, far from concluding that this makes the US an undependable ally, ministers reportedly fear that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by risking precarious American backing for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.
Leadership Speculation and The Echo of 2018
All of which returns us to 2018. Starmer has always said that address was not an attempt to become leader but merely an attempt to preserve the “option” of remain in a future vote. In fact, back then, he still supported a tailored trade agreement of the kind he currently seems to reject.
But it’s not been lost on the Prime Minister's office note that Wes Streeting, widely considered would be a candidate for the leadership, is part of a group of senior ministers signaling they desire greater ambition regarding the EU.
Aides to the Deputy Prime Minister, another probable runner in a future race for the top job, maintain she won’t discuss her stance on a customs union as it would merely “fuel unnecessary gossip”.
The Obvious Danger & A Prudent Reminder
The danger is obvious. If Starmer rules out more meaningful steps towards a close relationship, he allows rivals to claim the territory where most of the party's supporters are to be found.
It would be prudent for Starmer to recall the impact that a short phrase had for him in 2018. There are options for a major proposal on Europe which the PM ought to consider; he should prise them open personally, before someone else makes them his – or her – own.
